The young people have spoken, and it turns out, their voice is more conservative than we once believed.
The 2024 presidential election will result in Donald Trump returning to office. This outcome may not surprise some people, but many polls and analysts anticipated Kamala Harris would be victorious. Clearly, some factors that were overlooked.
Young voters — people under the age of 30 — are skewing more conservative than they have been in prior elections. This group is largely made up of Gen Z, a demographic that was once defined by its progressive views and diversity a few years ago. Fast forward to 2024, and this group is now considered a “moderate” bunch.
This doesn’t seem to be another case of people lying to the polls. Rather, young adults have faced several factors that shifted and realigned their priorities to the point that they‘ve redefined their generational values.
The moderate difference
If we look at data from Donald Trump’s first presidency, it indicates that Gen Z largely disapproved of the 45th president. Their views tended to align with Millennials, but as Gen Z overtakes the 18–29 demographic, we’re starting to see how different the younger generation is.
Overall, the 18–29 demographic remains liberal, but the gap is shrinking. In the 2024 election, the divide between the parties is narrower than the two prior elections. In 2024, the Democratic candidate had an 11% lead compared to the Republican candidate. That lead was 24% in 2020 and 19% in 2016.
When looking at data that separates genders, we start seeing a clearer picture of who’s leading the change.
According to the Wall Street Journal, men in the 18–29 demographic supported Trump over Kamala Harris by 13 percentage points. By comparison, the same demographic supported Joe Biden by 15 points in 2024.
Meanwhile, women in the 18–29 demographic still skewed Democratic in the 2024 election, but the margins were smaller. Harris led Trump by 18 points, compared to Biden’s 32 percent lead in 2020.
When we see any type of cultural shift, there are many factors at play. Americans are starting to learn that political polls are becoming increasingly unreliable, but when we look at cultural trends, we start to see themes emerge that could have young people seeing red.
They’re scared of the economy
When Millennials comprised the 18–29 demographic, they were financially struggling. Turns out, Gen Z has it worse.
The two generations do have a lot in common when it comes to their financial struggles. Many young people fear they won’t be able to afford the things they want in life like home ownership, traveling, and a sense of financial stability.
The fact that there are many parallels between Millennials’ and Gen Z’s financial situations is quite discouraging. Most of the challenges that young people faced from 2004 through 2016 didn’t really improve, so it’s not ridiculous for young people to gravitate toward a political candidate who wants to create more jobs for Americans and reduce prices. That may never come to fruition, but if Gen Z has any hope of achieving the things they want, something needs to change.
They form relationships online
Gen Z doesn’t really know a world without the internet, but after the pandemic, it’s become a pivotal part of their social development. Many members of Gen Z use platforms like TikTok, Facebook, and Instagram to meet new people and maintain friend and family relationships. This creates a platform for them to see and engage with unhinged and taboo opinions, the ones they wouldn’t be exposed to in a classroom or office.
Unsurprisingly, social media also influences Gen Z’s consumption of other media. More than ever before, young people are getting their news from social media — it’s more popular than network TV, cable channels, radio, and newspapers combined. This gives a lot of power to influencers, and as it turns out, news influencers online are more likely to be male and more likely to be conservative.
When a member of Gen Z finds a topic or influencer that resonates with them, it’s easy for them to take a deep dive. They can see what they want to see and filter out the opposition. Then, the algorithm will bless them with more content that aligns with their interests. To be fair, this logic applies to both conservative and liberal content, but it’s easier than ever to find what you want online and only see that.
Gender gaps are widening
Gen Z is being noted for being more conservative, but the men are pushing the group to the right. Exit polls indicated males favored Trump over Harris, with as many as 56% voting Republican. That number gets even higher (an estimated 67%) when only looking at young, white men.
There’s no singular explanation for this divide, but it feels like changing perceptions of gender norms are cause for concern. The 2024 election did touch on this, particularly when J.D. Vance commented about “childless cat ladies.” Later, Taylor Swift repurposed that title when supporting Kamala Harris, but Vance’s message resonated with many young men who want to have families and provide for them.
This change has challenged the sense of identity for many young men, and it’s not a uniquely American viewpoint. According to a study of 27 European countries from The Economist, the majority of respondents don’t support feminist movements because they could hold back men. Assuming this feeling also applies to young American men, it’s easy to understand why this population would support a candidate that aligns with more traditional gender norms.
White men are feeling left out
If you look at the population of young people who are most likely to vote Republican, white men seem to stick out. The study from the Economist theorized young men feel more threatened by women’s progress than other generations, and research suggests changing gender roles is creating negative perceptions of masculinity.
These dynamics can make it difficult for young white men to know who they should be. In 2022, Forbes reported that 70% of white men felt left out of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) efforts. A few years earlier, in 2020, Trump set the framework for “anti-DEI” policies. While Biden rescinded this, voters anticipated Trump would reintroduce similar policies. And since his election, major companies (Walmart, most notably) have rolled back DEI programs.
When discussing inclusion, white men are still viewed as the “standard.” As such, efforts to include gender and ethnic groups often make white men feel targeted and undervalued. While many people disagree, this perception can guide votes, and it’s not surprising that young white men would vote for the candidate that spoke to them.
They’ve lost hope
If you were a voter when Barack Obama ran for president, you’ll likely remember the word “hope” being central to that campaign. It’s now a slogan of a bygone era, but for many Americans, the emotion itself has also diminished over time.
Over the past few years, young people have endured issues like a pandemic, housing shortages, inflation, and employment woes. According to a study by Glocalitie, this created a sense of despair among the majority of young voters. Generally, that feeling makes people want to rebel. When they’re at the polls that means rejecting the political party that created the status quo.
Perhaps Gen Z’s need for hope isn’t so different than what Millennials sought in 2008. This is when a Democratic president replaced George W. Bush, a Republican. In 2024, many people rejected the Democratic candidate, representing the standing party, for the Republican nominee. So, if young people still feel hopeless in 2028, we could see their voting preferences change again.
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