2020 was a year when the world looked different. Some holiday festivities were virtual, people even joked they were canceled, but celebrations certainly occurred. Thanksgiving dinners were served and Christmas presents were opened, but retailers were more concerned with the time in between.
As most stores expected, Black Friday 2020 was a fraction of the event in 2019. Foot traffic was down 52%, but nobody expected people to break quarantine for discounted sweaters. The pandemic amplified a problem that was already happening. Physical stores were experiencing a downward trend in 2019.
That doesn’t mean retailers weren’t getting traffic. People were spending money, but it was from the comfort of their homes. Black Friday is starting to become another digital event, much like Cyber Monday.
Black Friday 2020 was a $9 billion event online. Sales surged by 21.6% and consumers didn’t need to break their social bubble or leave their homes. Now, retailers have to adapt or face the repercussions.
Why People Are Skipping the Rush
By this point in time, we should really be asking why people would ever want to go shopping on Black Friday. There are crowds, lines, chaos, and limited supplies. Often, customers need to wake up early and stand in the cold. It’s an awful way to end your Thanksgiving.
Apparently, Black Friday is the day to save money. It’s the full transition when stores go into full holiday mode, equipped with seasonal discounts and promotions. Historically, customers could experience better deals in-store. Now, this isn’t always true.
As e-commerce becomes more prominent, retailers have offered many of the same deals online that you could find in stores. This is one area that has likely been accelerated due to the pandemic. Big-ticket items like electronics and designer clothing can drive web traffic rather than foot traffic. By Christmas Day, the items will all be in the same place.
Most people will find any excuse to skip the crowds. If there’s a way to get their holiday shopping done without the seasonal frenzy, they’ll take it. The savings need to be big if people are going to be motivated to get out.
What Will Get People To Shop On Black Friday?
Surveys have indicated more consumers will be going out on Black Friday 2021 than they did in 2020. Compared to 2019, the pandemic’s impact will still be noticeable. However, the occasion will be more of a blend than it was in 2020.
Still, the minority of consumers will be going out. Stores don’t necessarily care about the number of people, they care about the dollars. They know people spend more when they’re shopping in person, so they need to provide a reason to take out your wallet.
Many deals will be replicated online, but bigger deals may be reserved for in-store shoppers. This is often true when it comes to electronics and home appliances, forcing shoppers to walk through a department store filled with merchandise before finding their discounted TV or washing machine. This is why some clothing retailers like Kohl’s will magically have in-demand electronics in their stores. Customers can take the road less traveled to cross that item off of their list. In the process, they’re exposed to a variety of enticing door-buster sales.
The most in-demand items will remain in-store exclusives so buyers need to expose themselves to all of the other discounts available. Think of the Playstation 5 in 2020; resellers were consuming a huge portion of the units available online. So, companies would lure shoppers into the store with the promise of PS5s in stock. This ensured resellers weren’t taking all of the units. People lucky enough to get their hands on a console would need to walk through aisles of Black Friday deals before swiping their credit cards.
In-store shoppers will spend more per transaction, but retailers aren’t going to turn away web traffic. If they can’t get people in stores, they’ll settle for screen time.
How Will E-Commerce Stores React?
Like all consumer trends, changes in behaviors will force businesses to adapt. As Black Friday becomes a blended event, we will start to see companies employ new tactics to get customers to spend more. Deals will last throughout the holiday season, but the best deals will be reserved for the most dedicated customers.
Cyber Monday Becomes Second Place
While Cyber Monday earns the honor of largest e-commerce shopping day, Black Friday isn’t too far behind. In many cases, shoppers will be checking for deals on both days because they expect the offers to change. Depending on the item you’re looking to buy, you could find better deals on either day.
It’s very possible that businesses will offer their best deals on Black Friday. While this is a huge, flashy event, many people know Cyber Monday is coming. So, people will hold out for Cyber Monday, realize Black Friday had a slightly better deal, but know they can’t turn back time. These holiday sales manipulate the psychology of scarcity with their ever-changing promotions. Companies know time is limited, deals are plenty, and wallets are open.
Bigger Deals For Bigger Spenders
Shopping at a brick-and-mortar store during the holidays is a well-crafted experience. Retailers strategically place popular items throughout stores, forcing customers to pass other deals to reach them. As a result, these shoppers get exposed to hundreds of other promos before they wait in the check-out line. In that line, they navigate through displays of cheap add-on items such as gift bags, discounted DVDs, or the often-forgotten batteries. Online, you get none of that exposure.
Retailers will need to be crafty if they want you to spend more. So, they’ll allow customers to receive greater savings when they reach certain thresholds. For example, you might get 15% off when you shop at a store like J. Crew. If you spend over $100 you’re eligible to receive 25%, and you can receive 35% when you spend $200. These types of discounts encourage people to buy more when retailers can’t shove products in front of customers’ eyes.
Businesses Will Rely on Late Shoppers
Black Friday and Cyber Monday are great events for people preparing for Christmas, but many people wait. Over half of all Americans wait until Christmas Eve to complete their shopping, and this means businesses need to be prepared for a late-season rush. They’ll offer deals, but these won’t be the best deals of the season. Desperate shoppers will need to settle because their options are limited.
In 2021, retailers are going to bank on late shoppers into coming stores. Supply chain issues are delaying shipping times, and people who don’t plan in advance may face longer shipping times than prior years. In the two weeks prior to Christmas, stores will see frustrated customers coming through doors because products weren’t guaranteed to be delivered by Christmas.
Delivery Drivers Become Our Overworked Heroes
Prior to the pandemic, there was an outcry from people who were upset to see seasonal deals on Thanksgiving Day. Clearly, people were willing to show up, but these promotions were at the expense of family time. In more recent years, major retailers have committed to staying closed on Thanksgiving. Places like Walmart, Target, and Best Buy have given employees the day off so they can celebrate with their families and get some rest before the Black Friday chaos.
Meanwhile, there are positions that are going unfilled. Supply chain shortages are delaying packages, and many customers misdirect their blame at the delivery workers. The people who do work in these positions are often overworked and given unrealistic expectations for low pay. As issues persist, customers can expect further issues and delays if workers don’t receive better compensation and manageable working conditions.
The Holiday Sales Season
With each passing year, the e-commerce experience on Black Friday will become closer to the e-commerce experience on Cyber Monday. Will the deals be exactly the same? No. Will the deals be great on both days? Probably.
Retailers will adapt because they need to and the stakes are high. Customers will always operate in their own best interests. If this means staying inside on Black Friday, that’s what they’re going to do. Retailers also know customers are spending more on holiday shopping each year. If they don’t cater to customer demands, they’re sending dollars to another store.
As Black Friday 2021 approaches, holiday sales have already begun in the United States. With the prominence of e-commerce, Black Friday isn’t the day to do your holiday shopping; it’s the day to start your holiday shopping. Prior years have shown us that sales don’t end after Cyber Monday, but there’s also no guarantee you’ll find the products you need.
To the dismay of many people, holiday shopping is only becoming a bigger event. Fortunately, 2020 has taught us that retailers will cave. They’d rather cater to customers than lose sales, and Black Friday will feel the impact. Even with in-store shopping returning, we can expect e-commerce sales to grow. This allows the shoppers to win, the retailers to win, and the holiday shopping to last longer than ever.
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